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Monday, October 18, 2010

Green Light for Investment in Brazil

The steady economy in Brazil and its stable long-term prospects mean that the excellent potential for investment in Brazil will hold steadfast whoever wins the next election. Whether Brazil’s next president is Dilma Rousseff or José Serra, analysts remain equally bullish.

According to Gabriel Gaspar, a Chilean political scientist quoted in the Financial Times (FT), there will be few surprises in store when Brazilians vote for their next president in the second round on 31 October. For Mr Gaspar, Brazil “has disciplined state finances, a growing internal market boosted by the graduation of millions of Brazilians out of poverty and into the middle class, plus growing ties with China”. And whoever leads the next government will build on this base and strengthen the potential for growth and investment in Brazil.

Other analysts, also quoted in the FT, agree with these criteria. For Will Landers, manager of BlackRock’s Latin American Investment trust, “Brazil offers the best combination of a strong top-down story and the most attractive valuations from a bottom-up perspective”.

The manager of JP Morgan’s Brazil investment trust is just as bullish. “Brazil’s economic potential, fiscal soundness of its banks and cheap-stock valuations have turned Brazil into the ‘poster child’ for emerging markets,” says Sebastian Luparia.

Experts are unanimous in that Brazil faces many challenges such as updating infrastructure and investment in human resources. The new government will have to bring these to the top of the political agenda over the next four-year presidential term. Mr Gaspar believes that while, facing the new challenges will not be easy, meeting them is more than possible.

Out-going President Lula leaves a strong legacy of international presence and his predecessor will be keen to continue this. Its importance within the continent is huge – for Mr Gaspar, “South America would have no meaning without Brazil”. On the global front, Brazil is well placed as a respected member of the G20. Few international analysts doubt that Brazil will become a member of the UN Security Council in the near future. And in terms of other emerging markets, Brazil has a far better democratic record than Russia and China, and gets on well with its neighbours unlike the other emerging BRIC giant, India.

For the majority of analysts including Mr Gaspar, Brazil’s “future path is already mapped out”. Brazil now ranks as the eighth largest economy and its tandem of a huge domestic consumer market and giant export trade should ensure this ranking rises steadily over the next decade. This inexorable rise in economy and international presence will also guarantee the potential for Brazilian investments.

Obelisk’s own market research reflects the bullishness shown by financial analysts. We too believe that Brazil is by far the best option in emerging markets and that this will remain so for the near future. For Obelisk, Brazil’s investment potential is best illustrated by Mr Gaspar’s closing affirmation that “Brazil has a dazzling green light ahead”.

Contact Obelisk International on 0034 952 820 319. Via email: info@obeliskinternational.com or visit our website: www.obeliskinternational.com.

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