Brazil’s Strongest Government

Brazil is just over a fortnight away from presidential elections and President Lula’s designated candidate, Dilma Rousseff looks set to take a landslide victory. This highly-likely event will represent a continuation of Brazil’s progress along the path to becoming the fifth largest economic power.

Lula is Brazil’s most popular president ever – Obama has referred to him as “my man” – and 80% of Brazilians approve of him and his policies. With employment and salaries running at all-time highs, Lula is known as the man who has brought unprecedented prosperity to Brazil. And under Lula, poverty has shrunk to its lowest level ever thanks to the government’s flagship economic development project, the PAC.

Lula’s policies include major social and class reform. Thanks to the many social programmes, 30 million Brazilians have left poverty behind them and the huge class divide, once a defining characteristic of Brazilian society, is now a thing of the past. Middle classes can now aspire to a home under the Minha Casa Minha Vida housing programme (part of the PAC) and employment opportunities with better salaries are also available. Fired by the confidence Lula inspires, investment in Brazil is booming.

However, constitutional rules mean Lula cannot stand for a third term so he has appointed Dilma Rousseff (known as just Dilma) to carry on his political project. Since Lula was first elected in 2002, Dilma has formed part of his government with her posts including Chief of Staff since 2005. An economist, Dilma has had close involvement in Lula’s projects to the extent that Lula refers to her as “the mother of the PAC”.

So far, all polls and televised debates point to a victory for Dilma with many polls predicting she will win outright in the first round. According to The Economist, Dilma “looks unstoppable” as she approaches the election race “under a lucky star”.

Dilma’s victory is almost a given and her party (the Partido dos Trabalhadores /PT) and coalition allies also look set to win in Congress and Senate. If the polls are correct and Brazil follows its usual election pattern, the PT coalition should control almost 400 seats in the 530-seat Congress and well over 50% of the Senate. This means Brazil could enjoy what The Economist describes as “its strongest government since the end of dictatorship” in 1985.

A strong government will give Dilma plenty of scope to fulfil her election pledge of continuing Lula’s legacy of popular policies and to further consolidate Brazil’s economic stability. For Obelisk, this is good news for investment in Brazil, particularly for investment associated with the new middle classes. As the main instigator behind the PAC, Dilma will undoubtedly ensure that the social housing programme Minha Casa Minha Vida continues to fulfil its objectives. Further economic progress will provide yet more opportunities for investment in Brazil’s upwardly aspiring middle class, a sector Obelisk has firmly earmarked as one of the best currently available.

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