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Monday, January 12, 2009

Building BRICs

As we enter 2009 and hope for a better year than 2008, in some corners of the world there are reasons to be optimistic. In 4 corners to be exact – Brazil, Russia, India and China, the so-called BRIC nations.

During the coming year, the BRIC countries are expected to account for a lion’s share of the world’s economic growth even though global GDP growth figures for 2009 do not make happy reading. The ‘father’ of the BRIC term, Goldman Sachs, has predicted that the world’s economy will grow by just 0.6% this year. The Financial Times (FT) expects advanced economies to decline by 1.2% in 2009 and predicts that most of the 0.6% growth will come from the BRIC nations whose combined projected growth is forecast to be 4.7%, nearly 8 times larger.

But it is not just 2009 that looks promising for the BRIC countries. According to the FT, GDP growth in the BRIC economies in 2010 will steam up to 7.2%, again well ahead of advanced economies, which are expected to see an increase of around 1.2%. If these forecasts are correct, by the end of next year, the BRIC nations will have been at the forefront of global expansion for 3 consecutive years.

What is more, the FT believes that it is highly likely that by 2035, Brazil, Russia, India and China will be collectively bigger than the G7, which includes the traditionally huge economic powers of France, Germany, the UK and the US.

The G7 currently does not include any BRIC countries, although all 4 are members of the G20 club, home to both advanced and emerging economies. The strength of the BRIC economies has led many political and economic analysts to call for the G20 to become the world’s forum for policymaking.

Brazil’s President, Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, certainly agrees. Speaking at the São Paulo summit for G20 finance ministers and central bank governors in November last year, Lula called for a reform of global financial institutions and for the International Monetary Fund to be restructured to reflect the importance of developing economies.

Lula is not alone. Soon to be sworn-in President Obama is well known to be an advocate of calling on G20 members for global decision making. “I think we can expect to see the BRIC nations, particularly Brazil with its charismatic president, taking a front seat this year,” predicts James González, Market Analyst at Obelisk. “The BRIC economies are definitely the ones to watch – and in invest in – during 2009.”

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