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Thursday, August 28, 2008

Booming Bulgaria

In the wake of the EU’s announcement that its 27 members have seen just 1.7% year-on-year growth in Q2 2008 – a figure that reflects the wide-reaching effects of the global credit crunch – Bulgaria’s Minister of Energy and Economy, Mr Petar Dimitrov, predicts that his country is well on target for over 6% GDP growth in 2008.

Mr Dimitrov expects Bulgaria to grow between 6.2% and 6.5% this year, a figure that confirms the country’s buoyant economy. At a time when most of Europe is experiencing spectacular hikes in energy and fuel, Bulgaria has, according to Mr Dimitrov, the EU’s lowest electricity, petrol and diesel prices. Add to this the fact that Bulgaria’s measures to check inflation are showing effects – July’s year-on-year inflation rate saw the first drop in 12 months – and it is obvious that the Bulgarian government’s tight economic policies are starting to pay off.

At 14.5%, inflation is currently well above EU average (just over 4%), but the government is more than aware of this and working hard to bring the rate lower. The European Commission expects the rate to fall to under 10% by the end of the year, which suggests that government measures are working. And with the Bulgarian National Bank reserves reaching record levels of €13 billion in July and the government in possession of an impressive budget surplus, there are no signs that the Bulgarian economy is suffering negatively from high inflation.

Government tax revenues have also increased dramatically since both corporate and personal income tax rates were cut to a low 10% at the beginning of the year. “The cut in taxes has had a positive effect on the country’s budget surplus,” comments James Gonzalez, Market Analyst at Obelisk, “and shows the country is really starting to reap the rewards of its economic reforms.” James believes that the Bulgarian government’s next target will be the VAT rate, currently at 20%. “It is thought that the authorities may use the budget surplus to reduce this to 15%,” he comments.

A booming economy and lower tax rates are all good news for the property investor and unsurprisingly, Bulgaria’s property market continues to boom. The latest to see impressive capital gains are plots of land in the vecinity of the capital, Sofia. These have seen increases of between 10% and 15% just this year. Plots near Sofia are commanding prices of €60 to €70 per square metre with this amount rising to over €100 when it comes to plots with utilities and situated within a 15km to 20km radius of the capital. This interest in building land around Sofia reflects the city’s increasing population, boosted by migrant workers attracted to the capital’s employment prospects.

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